All posts by alan

New ZuluTrade website features and updates

Hello fellow “zulutraders” ! Just a few hours ago I received an e-mail from ZuluTrade letting me know that they’ve made further improvements to their services and I thought I’d share the contents of the news update e-mail with you all. The rate at which they make improvements to their services is quite impressive! At any rate I’ve come to the conclusion that out of all the forex trading signal aggregators (aka “Forex Auto Trading Platforms”), ZuluTrade is the best. Anyways, enough of my eulogies, here is a copy+paste of the new features and improvements:

NEW FEATURES:

  • Quick access Demo account: New ZuluTrade visitors who are interested in taking a quick tour of our platform, can click on our main banner to enter “Learn Mode” and get instant access to the public Quick Access Demo account. This account will be reset to the initial settings every day (You may need to clear browser cookies to view this feature)
  • Trading Guide Videos by FX Gurus: Tutorial Videos about FOREX and ZuluTrade, by FX Gurus! These will help you better understand how FOREX and the ZuluTrade platform work

UPDATES:

  • Addition of 7 more languages: Czech, Dutch, German, Hungarian, Korean, Portuguese, Slovenian
  • Absolute Pips Calculation: Performance and Trade History now calculates only absolute pips.

That’s it for this post. I wish you all happy and profitable “zulutrading”!

Cheers,
Alan

Quick trick to find the most profitable day to trade

What is the most profitable day and time to trade and how do you
capitalize on this info?

No doubt you’ve asked yourself that question. That’s why I think this little trick may help
you out:

http://www.netpicks.com/cmd.php?af=1004071&u=http://www.theultimatetradeanalyzer.com/bestday/

This universal technique can be applied to any market, timeframe, and
system you use to trade. It doesn’t matter if you trade forex, futures,
stock or options this info can come in handy.

Check-out how you can know your best day and time to trade and how it can
be applied to grow your account:

http://www.netpicks.com/cmd.php?af=1004071&u=http://www.theultimatetradeanalyzer.com/bestday/

There’s no cost involved and the video explaining the method is less than 5
minutes long! Let me know if you like it.

Good Trading!

Upgraded WordPress to the latest version

Hi everyone. I just wanted to let you all know that I upgraded my blog software to the latest version, so you may run into bugs and other issues (hopefully not, but you never know!), and if you do I would really really appreciate if you send me an e-mail at: alan [at] alansforexblog.com letting me know!

Thanks for reading my blog. I wish you all many pips!

Cheers,

Alan

Forex Megadroid Backtest on Dukascopy Tick Data – 99% modeling quality

forex-megadroid.jpg

Hi everyone. I hope you’re all managing to make pips in this rough market. I’ve been rather busy lately so I haven’t had much time to update this blog. Among other things I’ve been rather busy working on and backtesting expert advisors (forex robots for the uninitiated.) I’ve been struggling to get my MT4 modeling quality beyond the max 90% capable with standard MT4 history data and I finally succeeded thanks to Dukascopy.

I found out that Dukascopy offers high quality tick data for free – thanks Dukascopy! After the rather extensive work converting the tick data to .CSV format and then that to the .FXT format necessary for the MT4 strategy tester you would not believe how joyous I felt when I first say the “99% modeling quality” when I ran my first backtest. Oh, by the way, I will post a “How-To” so you too can get this setup.

Now you may ask what does this have to do with Forex MegaDroid. Well, you see the first thing that came to mind when I finally got the history data all setup and ready for use was why not backtest one of my favorite EAs, which so happens to be Forex MegaDroid. This hard working EA has been consistently making money for me on two live accounts, but a bit of doubt hit me when someone posted on the Forex Nirvana forum a few rather nasty backtests of Forex MegaDroid trading from 2009.03.01 to 2010.03.01 (here is a link to the actual post).

I wanted to know if with better history data I’ll get the same results. Sadly though I could not get the Dukascopy backtest to run all the way to 2010 03 01 🙁 I don’t know whether it’s cause I did something wrong when I setup the Dukascopy tick data for MT4 or if it’s because of gaps in the tick data, but at best the backtest runs only from 2007 04 05 to 2008 03 05. I’m hoping that later on in the future I’ll be able to get more recent tick data working, and if I do I will backtest MegaDroid yet again and see if live account performance is equivalent to the backtest. But for now here is my backtest with proudly and painstakingly achieved 99% modeling quality:

Profit factor: 2.75
Expected payoff: 35.94
Maximal drawdown: 1753.29 (12.57%)
Relative drawdown: 12.57% (1753.29)
Short positions: (won %) 71 (94.37%)
Long positions :(won %) 60 (96.67%)
Profit trades: (% of total) 125 (95.42%)
Loss trades: (% of total) 6 (4.58%)

As you can see the results are very good but since I could not backtest the period showed in this forum post I can’t reassure you nor myself that MegaDroid won’t behave as in the backtests shown on that thread.

For now though live account performance continues to be satisfactory for me, but as you should know past performance does not guarantee similar future performance. Anyways, I’ll keep you up-to-date on the performance of my live Forex MegaDroid accounts. Wish me luck.

Time to wrap up this post. Thank you for your attention, and I wish you profitable trading, be it manual or (as in my case) with forex robots.

Cheers,
Alan

Fibonacci Techniques for Math Geeks – and Everyone Else, Too

The word Fibonacci (pronounced fib-oh-notch-ee) can draw either blank stares or an enthusiastic response. There’s hardly any in-between ground. But for those who ask how an esoteric mathematical relationship can apply to price charts and trading, here’s a quick lesson. Everyone who uses Elliott wave analysis will sooner or later want to try using Fibo techniques, and Elliott Wave International’s Jeff Kennedy has written about five of them in a Trader’s Classroom column. For an example of why people are so fascinated by Fibonacci, read part of Kennedy’s article here:

* * * * *

How to Apply Fibonacci Math to Real-World Trading
Have you ever given an expensive toy to a small child and watched while the child had less fun playing with the toy than with the box that it came in? In fact, I can remember some of the boxes I played with as a child that became spaceships, time machines or vehicles to use on dinosaur safaris.

In many ways, Fibonacci math is just like the box kids enjoy playing with imaginatively for hours on end. It’s hard to imagine a wrong way to apply Fibonacci ratios or multiples to financial markets, and new ways are being tested every day. Let’s look at just some of the ways I apply Fibonacci math in my own analysis.

Fibonacci Retracements
Financial markets demonstrate an uncanny propensity to reverse at certain Fibonacci levels. The most common Fibonacci ratios I use to forecast retracements are .382, .500 and .618. On occasion, I find .236 and .786 useful, but I prefer to stick with the big three. You can imagine how helpful these can be: Knowing where a corrective move is likely to end often identifies high-probability trade setups (Figures 7-1 and 7-2).

figure 7-1

figure 7-2

Kennedy then goes on to explain Fibonacci extensions, circles, fans and time, using 11 charts to show what he means. Whether or not you are a math geek, you can learn a lot from this six-page introduction to Fibonacci math.

Get Your Fibonacci Techniques Right Here. Jeffrey Kennedy has been using and teaching these techniques for years, and he has written a quick description of five Fibonacci techniques in his Trader’s Classroom column — now available to you for free by signing up as a Club EWI member. Read more about the 6-page report here.

Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the worlds largest market forecasting firm. EWIs 20-plus analysts provide around-the-clock forecasts of every major market in the world via the internet and proprietary web systems like Reuters and Bloomberg. EWIs educational services include conferences, workshops, webinars, video tapes, special reports, books and one of the internets richest free content programs, Club EWI.

Elliott Wave International’s Understanding the Fed eBook is now available

elliott_wave_international-logo.gif

Dear reader,

My friends at Elliott Wave International have just released a free 34-page eBook, Understanding the Fed. It’s the free report the Federal Reserve doesn’t want you to read!

This eye-opening free report, which represents more than 10 years of research by Robert Prechter, goes beyond the Fed’s history and government mandate; it digs into the Fed’s real motivations for being the United States’ “lender of last resort.” In this 34-page report, you’ll discover how the Fed’s actions, combined with public outrage, may ultimately lead to its demise, plus much more about its secret activities and how it affects your money.

Download your free copy of EWI’s Understanding the Fed eBook, here.

Warmest regards,
Alan
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About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.