Alan’s Forex Blog

From a long term perspective, $/yen has finally reached the downside target since last summer at the base of the triangle-type consolidation that has been forming since 1999 (currently at 101/102) . In the bigger picture, this scenario raises potential for an important bottom to form nearby (see shorter term below), with at least 3-6 months of gains back toward the ceiling of the pattern after (currently at 123, see “ideal” scenario in red on weekly chart below). However, with scope for more

In the Dow Jones Industrials , the view for over the last month remains unchanged as trade from the Jan low at 11635 is a correction (wave 4 in the fall from the Oct high at 14267, see numbering on daily chart below) and continues to target eventual declines back below the 11635 low (within wave 5, but further weakness may be short-lived, see longer term below). In the Feb 27th email and the market near the ceiling of its range from Jan, said it was a good risk/reward to reshort and sold there

Eur/$ has finally achieved the long held, longer term target at the ceiling of the bullish channel that has been in place for nearly the last 3 years (currently at 1.5275/00) and within the final upleg in the rally from the June low at 1.3265 (wave V, see numbering on weekly chart below). Though this suggests at least a few months of consolidating after it’s completion, the shorter term upside pattern is not yet “complete” and leaves open scope for further “net” gains ahead . I use the word

Eur/$ has finally achieved the long held, longer term target at the ceiling of the bullish channel that has been in place for nearly the last 3 years (currently at 1.5275/00) and within the final upleg in the rally from the June low at 1.3265 (wave V, see numbering on weekly chart below). Though this suggests at least a few months of consolidating after it’s completion, the shorter term upside pattern is not yet “complete” and leaves open scope for further “net” gains ahead . I use the word

In the Feb 25th email on $/yen , affirmed the bearish view on $/yen (new lows below the Jan 104.95 low) and the market has tumbled since, accelerating on a break of the month long bullish trendline. Currently, the market is approaching support at the falling trendline since Nov (currently at 103.50/60, see daily chart below). With the market near term oversold after the last few days of sharp declines, the long held, longer term target/support just below (see longer term below), and the

In the Dow Jones Industrials, the “preferred” view remains unchanged as trade from the Jan 22nd low at 11635 is seen as a correction (wave 4 in the fall from the Oct high at 14267) and suggesting an eventual resumption of the declines back to 11635 and even below (within wave 5, see “ideal” scenario in red on daily chart below). Currently, the market has bounced back to test key resistance at 12760/10 (both the ceiling of the month long range and currently the bearish trendline since is Dec).

The long held view in eur/$ remains unchanged as the market continues to chop within its pennant/triangle since the Nov high at 1.4965. These are seen as “continuation” patterns that resolve sharply, suggesting and eventual upside resolution back to the 1.4965 and above (see longer term below). However, there remains some risk for further wide chopping within the pattern first , while the market is near term overbought after the last few weeks of gains. Currently, with the market testing key

Cable continues to chop from the Jan 22nd low at 1.9340, and is seen as a large correction with eventual new lows after. However, there are no strong signs that this month long period of consolidating is complete, and leaves open scope for another upleg back to the Jan 30th high at 1.9955 and even slightly above first (see “ideal” scenario in red on daily chart below). Currently, the market is approaching good resistance at 1.9645/65 (both the bearish trendline since Nov and a 50% retracement