Alan’s Forex Blog

Near term, a dollar rally is expected, but the rally likely proves corrective. Expectations are for the buck to continue fall for the balance of March. Longer term, we maintain that a 12 year triangle ended at 124.13 in June 2007 and that the USDJPY is headed lower for a…

The one way price action in the EURUSD continued unabated this week, as the pair sliced through the 1.5200, 1.5300 and 1.5400 figures. However, even Friday’s worse than expected NFP numbers could not bump it over the 1.5500 hurdle. Non-Farm payrolls were as ugly as many analysts thought they would…

The early part of the week will continue to be dominated by the twin themes of US recession and deteriorating credit markets with a particular focus likely on credit-related stresses. There was a notable deterioration in market conditions last week with widening credit spreads while the cost of default protection…

Confirmation was at hand this week for the ailing United States economy. Though the official notification for the beginning of a recession, if there is one, is still seven weeks away with the release of the advanced GDP report for the 1st quarter on April 30th, one of the last…

EUR traded higher the past week testing a high of 1.5462 and sustaining its rise off the 1.4440 level,printed in early Feb’08.With the weekly momentum indicators still pointing higher, risk remains to the upside for further strength towards the 1.5462 level’which represents its Friday high ahead of the 1.5500 level,…

This week’s economic reports show economic activity stalled out in the first quarter. Employment, factory orders, the ISM index and construction provide a broad set of information for expecting the economy declined in the first quarter. For some time the risks to the outlook have been on the downside. Now,…

The newsflow makes for scary reading these days. The crisis in the financial markets appears to be escalating again, and the past week has witnessed falling equity prices, ditto bond yields, rising credit spreads and a general increase in risk premiums. Several markets are now in their worst position for…

The USD continued to decline for most of the week, buffeted by weakness in the ADP national employment report and a downbeat Beige Book, with a hawkish ECB thrown on top for good measure. Friday’s NFP report vindicated the weakness seen in the ADP report, for a change, and offers…