Alan's Forex Blog

Forex Mid-Day Technical Report Japanese Yen Rebounds Strongly as Stock Markets Tumble Yen crosses stage a sharp reversal into US session following sharp fall in European and US stock markets. US stock investors are also concerned that surging oil prices above $96 a barrel, as also seen in higher than expected PCE price index released today, will force the Fed to be on hold, after a neutral to slightly hawkish statement from Fed yesterday. Further slide is seen after the disappointing ISM

Forex Mid-Day Technical Report Dollar Trying to Recover after Strong Data, ahead of FOMC Dollar tries to recover from record lows in early US session after strong data from US. Q3 GDP grew strongly by an annualized rate of 3.9%, much better than expectation of 3.1% and even higher than prior quarter’s 3.8%. ADP employment report showed 106k job growths in private sector in Oct, much stronger than expectation of 60k and raised hope of a above 100k NFP on Friday. Though, recovery is so far

Forex Daily Technical Report Huge Day for Dollar, Focus on FOMC and Q3 GDP It’s a huge day for the greenback with FOMC rate decision and statement catching the highest attention of all markets. Interest rates futures are pricing in over a 90% odd of a 25bps cut today to bring the federal funds rate from a slightly restrictive 4.75% to a more neutral 4.50%. The discount rate is expected to be unchanged as borrowing at the discount window has been spare, indicating weak demand for emergency

Forex Mid-Day Technical Report Dollar Falls again after Poor Data, Cable at 26 Year High Dollar’s weakness returns after another round of poor data from US. S&P/Case-Schiller Composite-20, home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas, fell -4.4% yoy in Aug, sharpest fall in almost 6 years and the 8th consecutive month of drop. Conference Board consumer confidence also tumbled sharply to 95.6 in Oct, reaching a 2 years low, much worse than consensus expectation of 99.0. This time, Sterling

Forex Daily Technical Report Markets Cautiously Mixed, Dollar Recovers ahead of FOMC The Forex markets turn mixed as the highly anticipated FOMC rate decision is approaching. While interest rate futures are pricing in a sure rate cut on Wednesday, likely to be 25bps, WSJ Fed watcher Greg Ip thought it’s not as sure as the market thinks. Ip said that the decision will be a close call and Fed’s discussion will center around a 25bps cut or not cut at all. The primary reason is that many of the

Forex Mid-Day Technical Report Dollar Recovers Mildly from Record Low, Yen Weakens Dollar recovers mildly after breaking to new record low against Euro earlier today and is now struggling around 1.44 level. While dollar remains generally weak, the Japanese yen is even weaker, partly based on its low yield status, and partly due to resumed carry trade activies on strong rally in global stock markets. No important economic data is scheduled in the US session today. Market will continue to be

Forex Daily Technical Report The Trend Continues, EUR/USD Took out 1.44 The trend continues. Dollar extends weakness across the board on expectation for a 25bps cut in the federal funds rate on Wed, as well as concern of another around of weak growth data that could trigger further policy easing from the Fed. EUR/USD took out 1.44 level and reaches new record high of 1.4425. Canadian dollar makes another 33 year high against greenback after oil prices made a third record high in a row today on

Forex Weekly Review and Outlook Dollar Made Multiple Lows ahead of a Huge Week Dollar weakened to new record low against Euro last week as market’s focus gradually turned back from risk aversion to interest rates. With help of record oil and gold prices, the buck also dropped to new 33 year low against the Canadian dollar as well new 23 year low against Aussie. In addition to FOMC rate decision, Q3 GDP, Non-Farm Payroll will also be featured this week. After all, it will be a huge week for the