Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview – Aug 27 09

 Previous session overview

The euro is little changed Thursday against the dollar, and its ongoing intraday volatility inside this narrow range signals growing market uncertainty.

U.S. data released early Thursday has had minimal effect on exchange rates. The dollar garnered some support against the euro and yen on positive signs for growth in the U.S. second-quarter gross domestic product report and weekly jobless claims.

However, the euro remains slightly up on the day, recovering some from day earlier profit-taking and overnight anxiety tied to China’s recovery, which has become a major theme driving market direction.

The dollar’s response to morning data was the latest suggestion that the U.S. unit could begin to gain on positive U.S. data. It advanced some against the euro and yen after the GDP and jobless claims release, although the euro is still up on the day. This fundamental trading strategy, as opposed to risk-driven, is an emerging trend in currency markets, after nearly two years of flows being dictated by a flight to safety.

The yen may be finding additional support due to month-end factors and changes in Japan’s tax schedule that could encourage corporations to repatriate foreign investments back into yen.

Market expectation

EURUSD pair has been locked in a narrow trading range since early June. With the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve both likely to maintain easy monetary policy conditions for some time to come, interest-rate expectations – often a key driver of currency market moves – are unlikely to play a major role any time soon.

EURUSD second run above USD1.4270 sees rate extend recovery to USD1.4282, the earlier reported semi official supply not around on this move, trader’s reports. Rate currently trades around earlier stall highs at USD1.4276. If rate will push higher expected meet offers placed between USD1.4285/90 ahead of USSD1.4300/10. Main support remains in place from around USD1.4220 through to USD1.4200.

Pound recovery off extended lows of USD1.6170 extends to USD1.6221, with rate remaining buoyed above USD1.6200 into early NY trade. A break and clear above USD1.6220 to allow for a move back up toward USD1.6230/35. Bids now seen placed back at USD1.6195/90, stronger toward USD1.6170.

EURGBP stretched recent gains to stg0.8819, but momentum quickly faded as move ran into willing sellers on approach to stg0.8820 (61.8% stg0.9082/0.8400). A break here may open a move on toward stg0.8830/35 (stg0.8832 1.618% swing of pullback from stg0.88075 to stg0.8769).