Retrospective explanations of market moves don’t keep you ahead of the trend
By Elliott Wave International
On December 27, EUR/USD shot up as high as $1.3283. Forex news headlines were quick to comment:
“Dec 27 – The euro slightly extended gains against the dollar after strong U.S. new home sales data last month further lifted the market’s appetite for riskier currencies.”
But after EUR/USD hit that high, it promptly reversed and fell back down to the $1.3200 level, where it had been stuck all week.
You may ask: What happened to that “appetite for riskier currencies”?
Good question, and here’s the answer: That explanation came after the EUR/USD rally, not before.
See, it’s easy to fit the news to market action after the fact: Just grab the news story that best “explains” the move. But retrospective explanations don’t keep you ahead of the trend. To win in forex, you need forward-looking analysis, and you need it before the market moves.
On December 26, the editor EWI’s forex-focused Currency Specialty Service, Jim Martens, posted this comment on his Twitter feed:
EWI Forex Insider: @FX_ElliottWave
Now that we got the EUR rise we expected, the double zigzag rise from 1.3158 to 1.3256 leaves EUR/USD vulnerable to a decline.
Then, on the morning of December 27, Jim updated his Currency Specialty Service subscribers via this intraday forecast (excerpt):
EURUSD (Intraday)
Posted On: Dec 27 2012 10:01AM ET / Dec 27 2012 3:01PM GMT
Last Price: 1.3269
The overlapping rise and possible double top near 1.3309 could lead to a larger correction. A flat or triangle would lead to weakness…
And here’s the decline EUR/USD saw shortly after:
Note that neither of these two forecasts mentioned the news. And for good reason: The December 27 euro-bullish news would have had you buying EUR/USD all the way into the top.
Instead of the news, we at EWI look at objective Elliott wave chart patterns. That, and not the news, is what helps us to forecast the markets before they move.
We don’t always succeed. However, as you can tell from this example, our Currency Specialty Service delivers true forward-looking analysis. Get our forecast for the U.S. dollar plus 5 hidden market opportunities for 2013 in a brand-new FREE report >>
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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Don’t Expect the News to Tell You Where EUR/USD Is Going Next. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
Great article. I agree that sometimes there will be distortions between technical and fundamental analysis. The key is to have a plan, follow your plan and evaluate your trading positions.