Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview – Aug 26 09

Previous session overview

The dollar and euro edged up against the yen in Asia Wednesday as firm regional share markets caused speculators to buy riskier units such as the euro.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average was up 1.4% at 0500 GMT, compared with its closing price of 10,497.36 Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite Index, commonly seen as a gauge of the state of the Chinese economy, was 1.5% higher.

But Japanese exporters sold the dollar and euro for their month-end settlement, limiting the two currencies’ rise against the yen, dealers said.

At 0450 GMT, the U.S. unit stood at JPY94.18, up from its level overnight in New York at JPY94.14. The euro climbed to a high of JPY134.79, compared with JPY134.77.

Euro fell to USD1.4252 in European morning yesterday against the greenback although data showed that Germany GDP grew 0.3% in Q2. The single currency rebounded strongly to USD1.4364 following the release of U.S. consumer confidence, with the index rising to 54.1 compared to economists’ forecast of 47.5. However, euro pared all of its intra-day gains in New York afternoon.

The British pound fell against the dollar with uncertainty remaining in the economy. Bank of England policy makers said this month that the recession is deeper than anticipated, calming expectations that they will raise interest rates later this year.

The Australian dollar nudged higher in Asia Wednesday on the back of gains in regional equities and could gain further if U.S. and European data due later add to growing optimism for the global economy.

Market expectation

Dealers said the dollar and euro will likely push higher in the near term if European and U.S. stocks rise later the global day.

The U.S. unit and the euro could rise slightly further in the near term, to JPY94.80 and JPY135.00 respectively, as buoyant global share markets add to optimism over riskier currencies, traders said.

However, it may be difficult for the two majors to keep rising in the coming weeks because of a lack of market consensus over their direction in the mid-term, dealers said.

Most of them expect the dollar-yen to stay between JPY92 and JPY96, with the euro expected to remain between JPY132 and JPY136.

EURUSD offers seen placed between USD1.4320/25, a break to open a move toward USD1.4330/35 ahead of USD1.4345/50. Above here and rate can retest Tuesday’s highs at USD1.4364, a break to open a move toward USD1.4375/80. Support remains at USD1.4280, a break to open a deeper move toward USD1.4255/50 (USD1.4250 38.2% USD1.4045/1.4377).

Germany Ifo data at 0830GMT this morning’s highlight with traders forecasting an improved number following recent release of German GDP and yesterday’s Belgian BNB business survey, seen as decent indicator.

European stocks are expected to open a touch lower Wednesday, despite good economic data from the U.S. in the previous session and positive trading in Asia.