Monetary “Yentervention” did not cause the currency’s depreciation — it only COINCIDED with it

By Elliott Wave International

Talk about “star” wars.

“Asia’s biggest action star” Donnie Yen was just cast in the next installment of the never-ending Star Wars movie franchise. Mr. Yen, in case you aren’t aware, is known as “the strongest man in the entire universe.” (Huffington Post)

It wasn’t that long ago you could say a similar thing about the Japanese yen. Count three years back, to 2012, and the yen looked like the strongest monetary unit in the financial universe, standing at an all-time record high against the mighty U.S. dollar, the world’s “reserve” currency.

Flash ahead to now (circa September 2015), and the yen is down 30% whilst clinging to its lowest level against the dollar in 12 years.

So, what changed?

Well, that depends on whom you ask. According to the mainstream pundits, one main “force” has drained the yen of its superstar status: the almighty “Light S-ABE-R.” Or, in non-geek terms, Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who’s been shaping the country’s monetary policy. See:

“Abenomics Propels Yen’s Weakness” (Financial Times)

And: “Japan Bulls Rest Hopes for Yen Weakening on Abenomics” (Bloomberg)

There’s just one flaw in that logic:

The yen’s record-shattering bull run ended in late 2011 — more than a year before Abe took office in January 2013!

What’s more, Abe did not implement his “three arrows of fiscal stimulus, quantitative easing, and deregulation” — the factors widely held “responsible” for the yen’s weakness — until later in his term as Japan’s Prime Minister.

Now, let’s go back to the very beginning, to late 2011, and examine the yen’s broader trend through the lens of Elliott wave analysis. Here, we come to our November 2011 Global Market Perspective (GMP), where our Senior Currency Strategist, Jim Martens, identified a historic, decades-long Elliott wave “ending diagonal” pattern on the yen’s price chart.

As its name implies, an ending diagonal is found at the termination points of larger wave patterns, indicating exhaustion of the larger trend. When an ending diagonal … well, ends, the prices reverse and carry to the pattern’s origin — or even further.

The terminal nature of ending diagonals fortified the November 2011 Global Market Perspective’s bearish yen/bullish U.S. dollar forecast:

“USDJPY has been falling since June 2007 in a thrust from a [4th-wave] triangle that would end an impulsive decline lasting at least 40 years. The thrust [lower] has been unfolding as an ending diagonal, and as such, an abrupt turn [higher — towards weaker yen and stronger dollar –] should come as no surprise.”

The rally indeed took off the 2011 low, yet took a while to warm up. But, by January 2013 — coinciding with Prime Minister’s Abe taking the office — Global Market Perspective confirmed a long-term reversal was now underway:

“The recent advance in USDJPY since September [2012] is typical of third waves. There will undoubtedly be pauses along the way but next year or so [i.e., in 2014] should easily see USDJPY in the 124.16 area.”

This final chart captures the full extent of the USDJPY’s three-year long, 30%-plus uptrend:

Bottom line: Abe’s monetary “Yentervention” did not cause the yen’s depreciation; it coincided with a terminating Elliott wave ending diagonal pattern on the USDJPY’s price chart, which called for an upward reversal (towards weaker yen and stronger dollar).

True story.

You’ve just seen how invaluable Elliott wave analysis can be in clarifying long-term trend changes before they occur — and regardless of the political and economic factors.

Now, you can see how equally useful our technical analysis model is in anticipating near-term trend changes in EURUSD, Chinese yuan, and more — 100% FREE!

Right now, our free-membership Club EWI is featuring an exclusive new interview with EWI’s Senior Currency Strategist, Jim Martens.

In this compelling one-on-one ElliottWaveTV interview, Jim walks you through multiple labeled price charts of the world’s leading currency pairs — including the USDJPY.

You’ll watch Jim focus on the recent USDJPY “nosedive” towards a stronger yen and give you specific price levels which, if breached, would tell you if the yen is to get even stronger.

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Examples from Whole Foods Market (WFM) and Reynolds American, Inc (RAI) show you what to do (or not) to trade successfully with Elliott.

By Elliott Wave International

After 20 years of experience applying Elliott wave analysis in real markets, our Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy says that it remains the only tool that will tell him — down to the tick, to the pip, even to the penny – when his forecast is no longer viable.

That, according to Kennedy, are two most important keys to successful trading:

1. “Know where you are wrong,” and
2. “Don’t pick tops and bottoms”

See the logic behind Kennedy’s wisdom by reviewing these two timeless lessons from his Trader’s Classroom service: Whole Foods Market, Inc. (WFM) and Reynolds American, Inc. (RAI). Then, see how you can get more free lessons during Kennedy’s popular Trader Education Week, going on now!

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WFM’s forecast was right and RAI’s was wrong. While price evidence was compelling for both issues, the forecast in WFM was in the direction of the trend and RAI’s incorporated top picking. Here’s what happened:

Price evidence called for new highs in Whole Foods Market, Inc. on May 1. We had a clearly defined uptrend, a three wave move in the direction opposite the primary trend, and the move to the downside was contained within parallel lines:

Additionally, we had a double closed-key reversal when the low was made, as well as some bullish divergence on the smaller timeframes. Price evidence was very strong that this market would continue to new all-time highs, so my outlook was bullish.

The bullish outlook in WFM required the April low of $81.39 to hold. The trend was clearly up from 2009 into 2013. From an Elliott Wave perspective we knew that this was a countertrend move with an A-B-C structure (a corrective wave pattern within a larger trending market). We had the wind at our back and were not “picking a top.” We simply looked at the price evidence in support of a further rally.

Conversely, the following example in Reynolds America, Inc. did not work out.

On March 22, I anticipated a move to the downside in Reynolds American, Inc. as a five-wave decline and the subsequent advance as a three-wave move. I was looking for a tradeable selloff to the downside in wave (C) or wave (3):

Unlike the successful WFM example, I was not trading with the trend. Instead, I was looking for a “top.”

Yet I was able to prevent a losing trade from becoming a devastating trade because I could use the Elliott Wave Principle to “know where I was wrong.”

This bearish wave pattern was viable only as long as prices held below the February high of $45.17.

Once prices exceeded critical resistance, I knew not to look to the downside — that my outlook was no longer viable:

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Get more trading lessons from EWI’s Jeffrey Kennedy: Announcing Trader Education Week Join us for a FREE trading event that will teach you how to spot trading opportunities in your charts. Spend this week getting free trading lessons that you can apply to your trading immediately — from one of the world’s foremost market technicians, Jeffrey Kennedy. Whether you are new to trading or have years of experience, you’ll benefit from Jeffrey’s easy-to-understand style and clear presentation. He’ll cover topics such as: Patterns that lead to high-confidence trade setups Momentum indicators to support your pattern analysis Japanese candlestick patterns that alert you to a change of trend How to manage your trades using protective stops Register now for your FREE week of trading lessons