Tag Archives: Elliott Wave Theory

Part Three: The 3 Essential Parts of an Elliott Wave Trade [Book Excerpt Part 3 of 3]

Part Three: The 3 Essential Parts of an Elliott Wave Trade
Our last piece in this educational series excerpted from Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading

By Elliott Wave International

Would you like to improve your ability to trade — not only with a clear understanding of the Elliott Wave Principle, but also by learning how and when to act on your wave count?
According to Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy, there are the three key components of a successful trade.

In this final lesson — adapted from the Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading, a No.1 Bestseller on Amazon — Kennedy explains his third step for a high-confidence trade setup in Caterpillar: Manage the Trade (You can read Parts 1 and 2 by clicking below):

  1. Analyze the price charts >>.
  2. Formulate a trading plan >>.
  3. Manage the trade.

————————-

The day following our analysis and entry, CAT fell sharply (see Figure 2.3). As a result, the value of the position increased substantially. In retrospect, it would have been prudent to exit the trade entirely or at least partially the day after the swift decline. However, since the original analysis called for a move below 108.39, I decided to hold the position.


During the next few days, CAT continued lower. On Friday, May 13, 2011, I exited the position for a 336.05 percent return (see Figure 2.4), selling the options that were originally purchased at 86 cents for $3.75 apiece.

The 3 Essential Parts of an Elliott Wave Trade [Book Excerpt Part 2 of 3]

Learn from trading lessons taken from the new book -Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading

By Elliott Wave International

Three steps may sound simple enough. Yet if you have any experience trading, you know that nothing about trading is easy. Education is imperative. So is preparation.

Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy knows that it takes skill, discipline and courage to execute a successful trade. His new book, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading (coauthored with Wayne Gorman), picks up where Frost and Prechter’s classic textbook Elliott Wave Principle leaves off: It gives you the perfect blend of traditional textbook analysis and real-world application.

According to Kennedy, there are three key components of a successful trade:

  • Analyze the price charts.
  • Formulate a trading plan.
  • Manage the trade.

In this excerpt (Part 2 of 3), Kennedy shows you how to make a trading plan based on an opportunity in Caterpillar (CAT). You can read part 1 Analyze the Price Charts here >>

Part Two: Formulate a Trading Plan


In Figure 2.2, I chose to trade this setup using options, specifically, by purchasing 110 puts on May 10, 2011, at 86 cents apiece. These options were scheduled to expire on May 20, 2011, so there were only eight trading days left on these puts. Considering that these options were to expire in just a matter of days, this kind of trade is extremely risky, and only the most seasoned and risk-aware trader should consider doing it.

Since the initial sell-off in CAT from 116.55 to 108.39 transpired in four days, here was my thinking at the time: If the next wave down proved to be wave (3), then I would see prices fall farther in a shorter period of time; if the upcoming decline proved to be a (C) wave, then the upcoming sell-off would most likely be shallower and take more time. Even if CAT were to unfold in wave (C) and take twice as long as the initial decline, it would still trade roughly at $104.81, the level at which waves (C) and (A) would be equal by options expiration.

Again, it is important to understand that due to waning premium, an options trade should not be taken with the idea of holding the trade over a long period of time for a sizable move down. The idea was simply to catch a short-term move below the May 2011 low of 108.39 over three to five trading days.
Be sure to come back for part 3: Manage the Trade


The Ultimate Wave Trading Crash Course

Put yourself on the fast track to applying the Elliott Wave Principle successfully with a FREE one-week primer: The Ultimate Wave Trading Crash Course. Learn the basics with 5 FREE trading lessons from EWI Trading Instructor and Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy — including insightful excerpts from his Amazon No. 1 Bestseller, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading.

Learn more and start your crash course now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline The 3 Essential Parts of an Elliott Wave Trade [Book Excerpt Part 2 of 3]. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

The 3 Essential Parts of an Elliott Wave Trade [Book Excerpt Part 1 of 3]

The 3 Essential Parts of an Elliott Wave Trade
A NEW series of educational trading lessons from “Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading” — Part 1 of 3

By Elliott Wave International

When it comes to improving your wave-based analysis and technical
trades, three steps may sound simple enough. Yet if you have
any experience trading, you know that nothing about trading
is easy
.

Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy knows that it takes skill,
discipline and courage to execute a successful trade. In the
new book he has coauthored with EWI’s Wayne Gorman (now a
No.1 Amazon Bestseller), Visual Guide to Elliott
Wave Trading
, he picks up where Frost and Prechter’s
classic textbook Elliott Wave Principle leaves off
to give you the perfect blend of traditional textbook analysis
and real-world application.

According to Kennedy, there are three key components of a successful trade:

  • Analyze the price charts.
  • Formulate a trading plan.
  • Manage the trade.

In this excerpt (Part 1 of 3), Kennedy examines a high-confidence trade setup in Caterpillar (CAT).

Part One: Analyze the Price Charts


When it comes to trade setups, it doesn’t get much easier than the price chart of CAT from April and May 2011. As you can see in Figure 2.1, prices fell in five waves from 116.55 to 108.39. This wave pattern was significant because impulse waves identify the direction of the larger trend. Thus, this five-wave decline in CAT implied further selling to come that would take prices below 108.39 in either wave (C) or wave (3).

The subsequent rally in CAT that developed in three waves supported this analysis. Countertrend price action typically consists of three waves, so I knew to expect another move down in CAT. Moreover, the three-wave advance in CAT traveled to 112.47 to retrace 50 percent of the previous sell-off. That 50 percent is a common retracement for corrective waves. Also nearby was 112.84, the price level at which wave C equaled a .618 multiple of wave A, which is a common Fibonacci relationship between waves C and A of corrective wave patterns.

The only question at this point was whether the move up from 108.39 should be labeled as wave (B) or wave (2). From a short-term trading perspective, this question was academic because, either way, the trade objective was a price move just under 108.39. A final observation about the corrective rally: The slope of wave C in this case was shallower than the slope of wave A. A shallow wave C slope, which demonstrates a decrease in momentum, is a harbinger that the larger trend is resuming. These shallower slopes within zigzags are so common that they are almost a qualifying characteristic of the pattern.

By applying the most basic Elliott wave analysis to the price chart of CAT, I could see five waves down and three waves up into Fibonacci and structural resistance at 112.47-112.84. That meant that odds strongly favored a sell-off below 108.39 from near current levels. So, the question at that point was how best to capitalize on this information.

Stay tuned for parts 2 and 3 of this lesson.


The Ultimate Wave Trading Crash Course

Put yourself on the fast track to applying the Elliott
Wave Principle successfully with a FREE one-week primer:
The Ultimate Wave Trading Crash Course.
Learn the basics with 5 FREE trading lessons from EWI
Trading Instructor and Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy
— including insightful excerpts from his Amazon No.
1 Bestseller, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading.

Learn more and start your crash course now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline The 3 Essential Parts of an Elliott Wave Trade . EWI is the

world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to

institutional and private investors around the world.

The 2 Most Important Keys to Successful Trading

Examples from Whole Foods Market and Reynolds American, Inc show you what to do (or not) to trade successfully with Elliott Wave

By Elliott Wave International

After 20 years of experience applying the Elliott Wave Principle, Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy says that it remains the one tool that will tell him — down to the tick, to the pip, even to the penny – when his forecast is no longer viable.

That, according to Kennedy, is one of the two most important keys to successful trading:

“Know where you are wrong.”

In his May 8 Elliott Wave Junctures educational video, Kennedy shows subscribers how to acquire that knowledge when revisiting an earlier forecast that didn’t work out. This lesson was adapted from our EWJ service, and also explores the second of Kennedy’s Keys to Successful Trading:

“Don’t pick tops and bottoms.”

See the logic behind Kennedy’s wisdom by reviewing his analysis of Whole Foods Market, Inc. (WFM) and Reynolds American, Inc. (RAI).


My outlook for Whole Foods Market was right and my outlook for Reynolds American was wrong. While price evidence was compelling for both issues, the forecast in WFM was in the direction of the trend and RAI’s incorporated top picking. Here’s what happened:

On May 1, price evidence called for new highs in Whole Foods Market. We had a clearly defined uptrend, a three wave move in the direction opposite the primary trend, and the move to the downside was contained within parallel lines:

Additionally, we had a double closed-key reversal when the low was made, as well as some bullish divergence on the smaller timeframes. Price evidence was very strong that this market would continue to new all-time highs, so my outlook was bullish.

The bullish outlook in WFM required the April low of $81.39 to hold. The trend was clearly up from 2009 into 2013. From an Elliott Wave perspective we knew that this was a countertrend move with an A-B-C structure (a corrective wave pattern within a larger trending market). We had the wind at our back and were not “picking a top.” We simply looked at the price evidence in support of a further rally.

Conversely, the following example in Reynolds America, Inc. did not work out.

On March 22, I anticipated a move to the downside in Reynolds American, Inc. as we had a five-wave decline and a subsequent advance that was a three-wave move. I was looking for a tradable selloff to the downside in wave (C) or wave (3):

Unlike the successful WFA example, I was not trading with the trend. Instead, I was looking for a “top.”

Yet I was able to prevent a losing trade from becoming a devastating trade because I could use the Elliott Wave Principle to “know where I was wrong.”

This bearish wave pattern was viable only as long as prices held below the February high of $45.17.

Once prices exceeded this critical resistance, I knew not to look to the downside – that my outlook was no longer viable:


Learn to Find Opportunities in the Markets You Follow with Jeffrey Kennedy’s 47-page eBook: How to Spot Trading Opportunities

Now’s your chance to discover a whole new way to analyze charts and spot high-confidence trade setups using technical analysis. For a limited time, you can download EWI’s 47-page How to Spot Trading Opportunities eBook for FREE! ($79 value).

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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline The 2 Most Important Keys to Successful Trading. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Learn to Label Elliott Waves More Accurately

EWI Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy shows you how to use momentum patterns to confirm your count

By Elliott Wave International

Are you looking for an easy way to improve your confidence as you analyze the charts you trade? Take a quick look at this chart (adapted from Jeffrey Kennedy’s December 26 Elliott Wave Junctures lesson) to see how divergence relationships help clarify your analysis.

According to Jeffrey, divergence relationships are easy to identify. Whenever prices make a new extreme, look for underlying indicators to move in the opposite direction. Specifically,

The momentum relationship most often seen in waves 3 and 5 is divergence. Bullish divergence forms when prices make a new low while an accompanying indicator does not. Conversely, bearish divergence occurs when prices register a new high while an accompanying indicator does not. Bullish and bearish divergences are common to waves A and C, just as they are waves 3 and 5.

Notice the bearish divergence between waves 3 and 5 in the daily price chart of Halliburton Company (HAL) — Prices reach a new high, yet the MACD indicator moves in the opposite direction:

Jeffrey notes that if you label an advance as a 5th wave move, and yet you do not see momentum divergence, that tends to argue for an extended 5th wave.

Next, at waves A and C, you can see an example of bullish divergence. Wave A bottomed at $32.90 in HAL and wave C ended much lower at $29.83. The histogram readings that correspond to waves A and C are -36.26 and -26.60, respectively.

Here’s another example of divergence between waves A and C in Akamai Technologies (AKAM).

Notice that wave C is lower in price than wave A. However, if you look at the MACD histogram, you’ll see that it registered a higher reading in wave C than it did in wave A, thus giving us a bullish divergence.

Understanding that Elliott waves demonstrate unique momentum relationships as well as price structure allows you to label waves more accurately and with greater confidence.


Learn to Use Technical Indicators to Improve Your Trading and Analysis

This is merely one chart example of how you can use technical indicators to strengthen your analysis. You can also learn about Moving Averages, one of Jeffrey Kennedy’s favorite indicators, in a Free 10-page eBook from Elliott Wave International.

Moving averages are one of the most widely-used methods of technical analysis because they are simple to use, and they work. Now you can learn how to apply them to your trading and investing in this free 10-page eBook. Learn step-by-step how moving averages can help you find high-confidence trading opportunities.

Improve your trading and investing with Moving Averages! Download Your Free eBook Now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Learn to Label Elliott Waves More Accurately. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.