Tag Archives: forex articles

Mixed Reaction of the USD in the Market

Without any serious news hitting the market today, the USD is currently losing some lustre after its strong run for weeks and it is down against major currencies. The GBP and commodity currencies are the best performers. The relative appeal of the USD seems to have hit a level of saturation in absorbing the pressure from counterparts. Its incredible rally was capped at a 12-day consecutive advance as Tuesday opened lower. The uncertain turn is because the Fed rate hike expected on 14th December is still buoyant. With that said, here are the winners and losers.

Winners

Commodity currencies

The S&P 500 index is up by 0.6%, rising to record high, exceeding the last mid-August peak in response to the strong gains for the energy sector. The oil prices are going up by over 5% as OPEC agreed to cut production at the end of this month. The Iraq’s Oil Minister said that he would put a new suggestion on the table to push for the production cut. The high oil prices have supported commodity prices in general, with the commodity price index for Bloomberg up by 2% on Tuesday.

EUR

The EUR broke its more than 10-days losing streak against the USD, up by 0.2% at 1.0630, although that is subject to change before the trading markets close. Economic analysts are cautious about the European political risk controlling the path of EUR over the next few months, and that could easily make EUR/USD sub parity. Currently, the EUR/USD trades remain unchanged at 1.0630, testing fresh season low posted last minutes under 1.06. Although the resurgence attempt remains minimal in EUR/USD, as the USD wipes-out losses and appear to recover its strength across the major currencies, tracking a slight recovery seen in the European treasury yield won’t be enough. Moreover, the European Central Bank president said that he is ready to employ more stimulus packages whenever required, which is likely to keep prices stable.

There is nothing significance in the EUR calendar today, so the CMC Markets are looking forward to the release of US data for extra incentives. However, in terms of EUR/USD technical levels, the pair finds the abrupt resistance at 1.650, daily high. A break beyond the daily high is expected to test 1.0690 and from there to 1.0700.

GBP

GBP is the best currency performer of the day against the dollar, which is up by 1.1%, going through to 1.25% at some stage. The strong rally caught traders by surprise on, November 22 as many were expecting the USD dollar to dominate the market ahead of the midweek Autumn Statement. The British Prime Minister stole the show with her comments, suggesting that there would be no high point when it comes to Brexit. The economists perceived that she was suggesting that the traditional single-market is more likely to prevail.

So, the much speculation about the strong gains of sterling pound against the USD overnight may be due to the anticipation of a fiscal boost in the UK Autumn Statement or by the statement of May, the UK PM that she will look for a “traditional deal” for the Brexit to evade the “cliff edge” that every business fear. This reaction to the statement of May serves to remind traders how tricky it is to trade with a politically-driven currency. The GBP current resilience, especially against the USD and EUR is going to be tested in the coming days after the fiscal boost.

Losers

The USD/JPY pair rose to high of 111.37 on Monday only to slide and end the day at 110.78. The pair extended the slid to 110.35 on speculation that the dip will increase in the event the earthquake lead to a considerable damage. However, the Japanese government intensified the Tsunami warning, which help the JPY to recover losses and traded largely unchanged on Tuesday around 110.75 levels.

Besides, Trump through a video message said that he will quit the TPP trade deal on his first in office. According Trump, this will help his administration bring jobs to Americans. Remember, this deal was signed by 12 large economy countries, which cover about 40% of the global economy. The remarks may not be received well by the CMC Markets, because it may increase fears of trade wars. If the financial markets in the US and across Europe respond negatively to the remarks of Trump, the JPY is likely to strengthen.

Why the Japanese Yen’s Bull Run REALLY Ended

Monetary “Yentervention” did not cause the currency’s depreciation — it only COINCIDED with it

By Elliott Wave International

Talk about “star” wars.

“Asia’s biggest action star” Donnie Yen was just cast in the next installment of the never-ending Star Wars movie franchise. Mr. Yen, in case you aren’t aware, is known as “the strongest man in the entire universe.” (Huffington Post)

It wasn’t that long ago you could say a similar thing about the Japanese yen. Count three years back, to 2012, and the yen looked like the strongest monetary unit in the financial universe, standing at an all-time record high against the mighty U.S. dollar, the world’s “reserve” currency.

Flash ahead to now (circa September 2015), and the yen is down 30% whilst clinging to its lowest level against the dollar in 12 years.

So, what changed?

Well, that depends on whom you ask. According to the mainstream pundits, one main “force” has drained the yen of its superstar status: the almighty “Light S-ABE-R.” Or, in non-geek terms, Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who’s been shaping the country’s monetary policy. See:

“Abenomics Propels Yen’s Weakness” (Financial Times)

And: “Japan Bulls Rest Hopes for Yen Weakening on Abenomics” (Bloomberg)

There’s just one flaw in that logic:

The yen’s record-shattering bull run ended in late 2011 — more than a year before Abe took office in January 2013!

What’s more, Abe did not implement his “three arrows of fiscal stimulus, quantitative easing, and deregulation” — the factors widely held “responsible” for the yen’s weakness — until later in his term as Japan’s Prime Minister.

Now, let’s go back to the very beginning, to late 2011, and examine the yen’s broader trend through the lens of Elliott wave analysis. Here, we come to our November 2011 Global Market Perspective (GMP), where our Senior Currency Strategist, Jim Martens, identified a historic, decades-long Elliott wave “ending diagonal” pattern on the yen’s price chart.

As its name implies, an ending diagonal is found at the termination points of larger wave patterns, indicating exhaustion of the larger trend. When an ending diagonal … well, ends, the prices reverse and carry to the pattern’s origin — or even further.

The terminal nature of ending diagonals fortified the November 2011 Global Market Perspective’s bearish yen/bullish U.S. dollar forecast:

“USDJPY has been falling since June 2007 in a thrust from a [4th-wave] triangle that would end an impulsive decline lasting at least 40 years. The thrust [lower] has been unfolding as an ending diagonal, and as such, an abrupt turn [higher — towards weaker yen and stronger dollar –] should come as no surprise.”

The rally indeed took off the 2011 low, yet took a while to warm up. But, by January 2013 — coinciding with Prime Minister’s Abe taking the office — Global Market Perspective confirmed a long-term reversal was now underway:

“The recent advance in USDJPY since September [2012] is typical of third waves. There will undoubtedly be pauses along the way but next year or so [i.e., in 2014] should easily see USDJPY in the 124.16 area.”

This final chart captures the full extent of the USDJPY’s three-year long, 30%-plus uptrend:

Bottom line: Abe’s monetary “Yentervention” did not cause the yen’s depreciation; it coincided with a terminating Elliott wave ending diagonal pattern on the USDJPY’s price chart, which called for an upward reversal (towards weaker yen and stronger dollar).

True story.

You’ve just seen how invaluable Elliott wave analysis can be in clarifying long-term trend changes before they occur — and regardless of the political and economic factors.

Now, you can see how equally useful our technical analysis model is in anticipating near-term trend changes in EURUSD, Chinese yuan, and more — 100% FREE!

Right now, our free-membership Club EWI is featuring an exclusive new interview with EWI’s Senior Currency Strategist, Jim Martens.

In this compelling one-on-one ElliottWaveTV interview, Jim walks you through multiple labeled price charts of the world’s leading currency pairs — including the USDJPY.

You’ll watch Jim focus on the recent USDJPY “nosedive” towards a stronger yen and give you specific price levels which, if breached, would tell you if the yen is to get even stronger.

So, here’s what you need to know:

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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Why the Japanese Yen’s Bull Run REALLY Ended. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Forex: Elliott wave analysis helps me cut to the chase

Fresh insights from Elliott Wave International’s Senior Currency Strategist, Jim Martens

By Elliott Wave International

Jim Martens is one of the few forex Elliott wave instructors in the world and a long-time editor of Elliott Wave International’s forex-focused Currency Pro Service. A sought-after speaker, Jim has been applying Elliott waves since the mid-1980s, including two years at the George Soros-affiliated hedge fund, Nexus Capital, Ltd.

Below is an excerpt from his latest interview. To read the full interview — and get Jim’s latest big-picture forecast for EURUSD, tips on how to learn Elliott fast, and practical ideas on how to treat your forex trading as a business — complete your free Club EWI profile. It only takes 30 seconds.

*********

Jim, thanks for joining us today. The U.S. dollar recently hit its highest level in many weeks. Were you surprised by that?

Jim Martens: The strength in the U.S. Dollar Index came as no surprise. And that’s not just me bragging. We track its Elliott wave patterns daily, even intraday. Since the dollar’s peak back in March of this year, the decline has taken a decidedly corrective Elliott wave look: The price action has been choppy, overlapping, and generally lacking direction, as you see on the circled portion of the chart below. Any time you see that on a price chart, that’s your first clue that the market must be taking a “breather” before the larger trend resumes. In this case, the larger trend has been higher, so when the dollar popped back up recently, to us it meant that the correction must be over.

For Elliott wave fans among your readers, it looks like the correction since March took the shape of a pattern called a “double zigzag,” labeled in circled green “abc”-“abc” on this chart:

As you can see, we have labeled the entire correction as a wave 4 within a basic 5-wave Elliott wave pattern called an “impulse,” with wave 5 most likely starting now. So, the USDX has higher to go — much higher, in fact, because by the looks of the Elliott wave pattern underway, the latest dollar strength is only the start of the move. We are expecting the Dollar Index to move well above 100.

And, because the U.S. Dollar Index moves inversely to the euro-dollar, looking at a EURUSD chart, we are expecting significant weakness in this key forex pair… [EURUSD chart with a forecast follows — Ed.]

(To read the full interview, complete your free Club EWI profile. It only takes 30 seconds. You’ll learn: Jim’s latest big-picture forecast for EURUSD, tips on how to learn Elliott fast, and practical ideas on how to treat your forex trading as a business.

Already a Club EWI member, access the full report now >>


This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Forex: “Elliott wave analysis helps me cut to the chase.”. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

The 2 Most Important Keys to Successful Trading

Examples from Whole Foods Market (WFM) and Reynolds American, Inc (RAI) show you what to do (or not) to trade successfully with Elliott.

By Elliott Wave International

After 20 years of experience applying Elliott wave analysis in real markets, our Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy says that it remains the only tool that will tell him — down to the tick, to the pip, even to the penny – when his forecast is no longer viable.

That, according to Kennedy, are two most important keys to successful trading:

  1. “Know where you are wrong,” and
  2. “Don’t pick tops and bottoms”

See the logic behind Kennedy’s wisdom by reviewing these two timeless lessons from his Trader’s Classroom service: Whole Foods Market, Inc. (WFM) and Reynolds American, Inc. (RAI). Then, see how you can get more free lessons during Kennedy’s popular Trader Education Week, going on now!


WFM’s forecast was right and RAI’s was wrong. While price evidence was compelling for both issues, the forecast in WFM was in the direction of the trend and RAI’s incorporated top picking. Here’s what happened:

Price evidence called for new highs in Whole Foods Market, Inc. on May 1. We had a clearly defined uptrend, a three wave move in the direction opposite the primary trend, and the move to the downside was contained within parallel lines:

Additionally, we had a double closed-key reversal when the low was made, as well as some bullish divergence on the smaller timeframes. Price evidence was very strong that this market would continue to new all-time highs, so my outlook was bullish.

The bullish outlook in WFM required the April low of $81.39 to hold. The trend was clearly up from 2009 into 2013. From an Elliott Wave perspective we knew that this was a countertrend move with an A-B-C structure (a corrective wave pattern within a larger trending market). We had the wind at our back and were not “picking a top.” We simply looked at the price evidence in support of a further rally.

Conversely, the following example in Reynolds America, Inc. did not work out.

On March 22, I anticipated a move to the downside in Reynolds American, Inc. as a five-wave decline and the subsequent advance as a three-wave move. I was looking for a tradeable selloff to the downside in wave (C) or wave (3):

Unlike the successful WFM example, I was not trading with the trend. Instead, I was looking for a “top.”

Yet I was able to prevent a losing trade from becoming a devastating trade because I could use the Elliott Wave Principle to “know where I was wrong.”

This bearish wave pattern was viable only as long as prices held below the February high of $45.17.

Once prices exceeded critical resistance, I knew not to look to the downside — that my outlook was no longer viable:


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  • Patterns that lead to high-confidence trade setups
  • Momentum indicators to support your pattern analysis
  • Japanese candlestick patterns that alert you to a change of trend
  • How to manage your trades using protective stops

Register now for your FREE week of trading lessons

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline The 2 Most Important Keys to Successful Trading. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Social trading is here to stay for long – why?

Social media has altered the ways we used to share with each other at a globe level. Interconnectivity of the world has grown more powerful now that a major share of the global population is interacting via some form of social media on a regular basis.

Social trading changes the old trading ways

Social media has been an online revolution that has grown into a huge industry all over the globe. It has even made its way through the world of forex trading. A major segment of the global population can now explore immense possibilities across the online trading platform.
Trading has gone a step further towards democratization with the help of Social Trading.

Social Trading is a good option that allows traders to connect with others directly so that they are able to imitate real trades, consider market analysis and updates and communicate ideas.

Traders are said to benefit much out of social trading once they consider it within their current trading strategies. It has become important for all traders to understand what social trading is and how they could utilize it for their benefit. They must discuss a few of the risks associated with social trading and how these risks could be avoided. Prior to using a social network for trading, relying on other traders and considering their skills and experiences, it is truly important for a trader to do a thorough research just in the way they will do for other forex strategies.

Social Trading isn’t going to leave the market so soon. The financial world has rarely seen a more disruptive technology than this one. On the contrary, much of the unresolved issues that the financial world has seen till date have been addressed by it quite comfortably. Without Social Trading, it wouldn’t have been possible for us to address a few trading needs so effectively.

A few of the needs that have been addressed by social trading are as follows:

1) Transparency – There has always been a need to make financial services more transparent till the time the new regulations showed an option to address this need for transparency. These days, social trading enables us to be more transparent by imposing certain regulation on trading means.

2) Risk Mitigation – The risk that traders are willing to take can be controlled by them once they take part in Social Trading. For those individuals that wish to take part in the market trades without posing as traders will also find this a safer option.

3) Market Access – Participants of institutional or retail trades aren’t able to access all financial markets. Forex is one such market that seems tough for them to trade in; they can only participate in it as a trader. Social Trading is one good option for them to gain access to the trading market before they actually become traders.

There are a number of things that need to be taken care of before Social Trading becomes an important segment of future trading ways. All the key regulatory bodies must accept social trading as a proper form of trading. All agencies that follow social trading find it to be a long educational process. A majority of traders have turned optimistic about it. The participation cost and extra transparency are two key factors that address various social trading issues, but that can be discussed in a separate article.

How to Limit Your Forex Losses

Even the most novice or inexperienced investor should know that the idea of forex as a game of luck is incorrect. Fortune has its part to play, admittedly, but skill, time and effort have a far higher value when it comes to the determination of success. Although this means that a great deal of blood, sweat and tears must go into mastering the art of forex, this is very good news for investors, as it means that it’s entirely possible to tip the scales in our favour.

Here are three top tips to help you minimize your losses and turn your forex strategy into a roaring success…

Tip One: Choose a Suitable Broker

Perhaps the best way for any investor to safeguard their forex strategy is by selecting a suitable brokerage firm, like OANDA. The currency markets have no central trading area, and this means that the broker you choose will act as conduit, advisor, mentor and informant all rolled into one. It’s imperative, therefore, that you find one who fulfils your needs. For all but the most experienced, an advisory service will be the right way to go. Offering the opportunity to learn as you trade, your losses will still be limited by the experienced, guiding hand of an expert trader, helping to keep your account in the black.

Tip Two: Don’t Invest More than 10 Per Cent in a Single Trade

Our second tip should be self evident, yet a surprisingly large number of traders have a libertine approach to investing. It is, quite simply, this: limit your losses by capping the amount that you invest. Losses are only harmful to your portfolio if they push it into the red, and the best way to prevent this is by controlling the potential fallout from individual trades gone wrong. Setting a cap of 5 to 10 per cent on a single trade is the easiest way to do this, and even those with the highest risk thresholds should never risk more than 15 per cent of their account total in any one move.

Tip Three: Never Invest Reactively

Our third top tip is this: don’t invest reactively. Many traders, especially those lacking in experience, respond to large losses with emotion. This is not the way to do it. Rather than immediately closing your trade and trying to salvage your portfolio with new positions, take a deep breath and step back. Ask yourself these questions: If you leave your trade open, is there a possibility that your position will recover? If you had not experienced a loss, would you be making the same moves? If the answers are ‘yes’ and ‘no’ respectively, then stop, push your emotions to the side, and reassess your next move with a calm, clear head.

Follow these top tips today to limit your forex losses and turn your trading strategy into a success story.

Understanding Forex Commission Structures

Unlike most other exchange-driven markets, forex has an enticing feature that brokers take full advantage of in their continual bid to lure in investors: no exchange fees, regulatory fees, data fees, or commissions. To many first-time traders, this gives it a major advantage over other markets, but accepting such a bargain doesn’t always mean that you get the best deal available.

Read on to discover how to choose the commission structure that will work best for you…

Three Forms of Commission

Forex brokers offer three different forms of commission to their traders: fixed spread, variable spread, and commission based on a percentage of the spread. These options each have their advantages and disadvantages, which means that there’s no simple answer when it comes to choosing which of them will work best for you.

However, before you can make an informed decision, you need to understand what spread is. Spread is the difference between the price the market maker will pay you for buying the currency (the bid price) and the price at which they’re prepared to sell it to you (the ask price). It is calculated in pips. If your broker quotes you EURUSD – 1.5550 – 1.5552, the spread would be two pips, for example.

To work out how this translates into real money, it can be useful to use the trading calculators that some brokers provide.

Fixed Spreads

If you choose a broker offering a fixed spread, then the difference between the bid and ask price, and thus the spread, in the above example would always be two pips. This would not be affected by market movement, either positively or negatively. At first glance, this can seem like the best choice, as it provides you with certainty. For some people, it will be, but for others, it is worth considering the other options available to you.

Variable Spreads

For those who are not averse to risk, variable spreads can prove a wiser choice. These spreads will change in accordance with market movements. On the one hand, this could mean that they rise to as much as five pips; on the other, it can see spreads drop to as little as 1.5 pips.

Commission

There are also brokers who will earn money through charging a small amount of commission. The benefit of this type of broker is that they often have a good relationship with a large market maker who can pass tight spreads onto you.
Each type of commission will have a different effect on your trading. Of course, part of this will be influenced by your individual broker, but that doesn’t mean that it isn’t worth considering their individual merits and pitfalls. Which one do you think would work best for you?

US Department of Justice Expands Probe Into Forex Deals – Major Banks Involved

We’ve seen numerous inquiries over the last couple of years by government departments looking into the world of forex trading, and this past weekend saw the United States Department of Justice open up its own probe to include two additional banks, and those are Barclays and UBS.

Forex is an increasingly popular investment option for investors of all levels these days, and some may argue that current rules and regulations are struggling to keep up, which is one of the reasons we so often see these investigations. It’s not that the investors or smaller brokers that deal with investors, such as ThinkForex, that are doing anything wrong; it’s almost always been major banks either misleading or miss-selling products.

That is exactly the same case this time round, as the Department of Justice has reason to believe that both Barclays and UBS have been selling a variety of structured products without making it clear how much they were making on each of the forex trades. In this case, these products were not small-market; there’s reason to believe some major Swiss hedge funds bought into the products, and they may well have been the ones to alert the authorities that something was amiss.

Knock-On Effects

To the day trader, these kinds of investigations probably don’t appear all that important, but there is of course an interesting question to be raised – who is your broker’s broker? Many of these major banks are enabling the smaller brokers that you might be used to dealing with day-to-day, and they’re not invulnerable to knock-on effects. At the beginning of the year, we say major brokers including Alpari UK and LQD Markets go bust because they lost their liquidity. The situation isn’t exactly the same, but it certainly is worth bearing in mind.

As already mentioned, this isn’t exactly a new investigation. Several other banks are already under scrutiny by the Department, all with the same charge of simply not disclosing the relevant information properly to their clients involved in the forex markets.
In the coming days, we’re likely to see more information coming out, but at this stage we’re mostly in the dark in regard to specifics. The Financial Times first broke the news story on Sunday, but since then there has been no comment made by the Department of Justice, or indeed Barclays or UBS.