Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview – Sept 15 09

Previous session overview

The dollar was flat to slightly higher versus major counterparts Tuesday, consolidating ahead of the release of U.S. retail sales figures for August and a speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on the one-year anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

The euro traded at USD1.4598, down slightly from USD1.4614 versus the dollar in New York trade Monday afternoon.

The single currency came under pressure after a gauge of German investor confidence posted a weaker-than-expected rise in September, but then trimmed losses.

The Mannheim-based Center for European Economic Research, or ZEW, said its economic expectations index rose to 57.7 in September, up from 56.1 in August. Economists had forecast a rise to 59.5.

The British pound was the big mover on currency markets, dropping versus the greenback and falling to a three-month low versus the European single currency after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said the Monetary Policy Committee was considering a cut in the deposit rate paid on some reserves held by commercial banks at the BOE.

Market expectation

Dealers said the greenback remains in a downward trend due to lingering uncertainty over the strength of the U.S. economy, adding that upcoming U.S. data will be key to determining the dollar’s next move.

USDCAD marginally weaker in tightly range bound trading, consolidating after a more volatile session on Monday. General levels of risk appetite remain the main influence on USDCAD movements, as currency players await possible new information from a speech in Berlin from BOC deputy governor John Murray later Tuesday. Currency strategists suggested that there is potential for a move lower in USDCAD following the release of the speech, given the likely upbeat tone on near-term prospects for economic growth.

EURJPY spiked to a high of JPY133.76 (100day m/a), the move above JPY133.70 triggering reported system stops but demand quickly overwhelmed by profit take sales, with rate squeezing back to JPY133.30. Rate currently trades around JPY133.40. Next band of offers now seen placed up at JPY134.00/10, exposed if JPY133.76 gives way.

In some traders view, the USD is beginning the much needed correction from oversold. News is moderate and not market moving yet the majors are showing signs of a coordinated move lower after some follow-on buying to start the week. Should this be the start of a correction we can expect to see the USD much higher by the end of the week.

Source: Dukascopy