Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview – Sept 16 09

Previous session overview

The dollar is trimming overnight losses against major rivals early in the New York session, although it remains down against the yen.

The euro had climbed to another nine-month high Wednesday against the dollar for its seventh consecutive trading session, driven by risk appetite and the ultra low interest rate on the U.S. unit. It rose to USD1.4715, shy of a 12-month top above USD1.4720.

Other higher-yielding currencies also rallied versus the dollar overnight, including the yen, which traditionally has been a lower-yielding currency. Three-month dollar Libor rates, though, fell again Wednesday, retaining the dollar’s use as the financing currency of choice now. In this new environment, the dollar is getting hammered across the board.

Currencies had little reaction to U.S. inflation data released earlier, which met economist expectations. Moreover, it is commonly agreed that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates very low into next year given that core prices remain soft.

Meanwhile, riskier-sensitive emerging market currencies also gained overnight.

Market expectation

EURGBP squeezing higher extends recovery off earlier pullback lows at stg0.88825 to stg0.8915. Offers seen placed to stg0.8920, a break to allow for a move back toward the mentioned high. A break here may open a move to stg0.8940/45 ahead of stg0.8955/60.

For EURUSD technical resistance eyed at USD1.4721 area of Dec highs with flows described on the day as good, participation seen from a variety of accounts including macro names and others. Earlier noted supply at USD1.4700/05 for now breaking the rally in the pair with further supply around that technical resistance. Bids at USD1.4650 the cushion, a few accounts said quick buyers on the bounce after missing the dip.

Pound tracking euro-dollar’s recovery, this rate breaking back above USD1.4700, with rate edging back toward USD1.6500 but trailing as euro-sterling builds back above stg0.8900. Pound meeting headwinds above USD1.6500, but tone remains firm. A break and clear above the figure to allow for a move on toward USD1.6515. Above here and USD1.6530 moves back into view. Support remains around USD1.6470, more between USD1.6455/45.

Ahead of the Swiss National Bank meeting on Thursday, analysts suggest betting on euro gains against the Swiss franc, as the SNB is expected to say it will continue with unconventional policy measures, such as intervention in currency markets to limit franc appreciation.

Source: Dukascopy