Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview – Sept 25 09

Previous session overview

The euro weakened Friday morning against the dollar after worse-than-expected U.S. durable goods data threw cold water on a possible risk rally.

In another sign of a pause in economic recovery, durable goods dropped 2.4% in August to USD164.44 billion. Economists had expected a gain of 0.3%.

Falling Asian equities overnight also helped stymie a reversal of the euro’s day-earlier slide against the dollar.

The yen strengthened early Friday against the dollar and euro in overnight trading as comments from the Japanese finance minister and sagging Asian equities combined to support the Japanese currency.

Japanese Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii said in a Thursday evening meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner that he opposed intentionally devaluing the yen or any other currency, Kyodo News reported.

The dollar fell overnight to JPY89.96, below a key support level of JPY90, but has since retraced some of those losses.

The pound fell as low as USD1.5915 in Asian trading Friday, a level last seen in early June.

Market expectation

EURUSD has edged up to USD1.4650 area in current trade with flows described as light, dollar and stocks showing only muted reaction to the disappointing durables data, known to be a volatile series. Post-data lows marked around USD1.4625 leave the overnight base intact and rebound brings light chatter of Asian buys. Talk of a USD1.4595 expiry for today with bids ahead at USD1.4600/10, interest more mixed below there as talk emerges of bids and stops layered below.

Pound extends recovery away from post US durable goods lows of USD1.5920 to USD1.5996, but seen meeting supply placed ahead of USD1.6000. Resistance now seen placed between USD1.6000/10, a break to open a move toward USD1.6025/30.

EURGBP getting flashed that area around stg0.9190 seeing ‘good sellers’. Traders add that area above stg0.9200 said to hold decent sell interest, one suggesting in the stg0.9200/20 area. Earlier talk suggested that the stg0.9200 level held barrier interest but no confirm for this found so far but current action supports the view.

Stock futures indicated a slightly higher opening on Wall Street. Investors are awaiting U.S. data on new home sales, consumer sentiment and durable goods orders.

Currency traders will also be following developments at the Group of 20 meeting in Pittsburgh.

Movers & Shakers:

Important levels:

Source: Dukascopy