Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4629; (P) 1.4676; (R1) 1.4738;
EUR/USD’s fall from 1.4842 continued today and the break of 1.4611 support confirms that a short term top is at least in place at 1.4842, with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Further decline is now expected to be seen to 1.4446 resistance turned support next and break will target key support level at 1.4177. On the upside, however, break of 1.4724 minor resistance will dampen this immediate bearish view and turn outlook neutral first.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2456 is the third leg of the medium term consolidation pattern that started at 1.2329 and should be close to completion, with the current rise as the fifth wave in the five wave sequence from 1.2456. Such rise is expected to be limited by 1.4867 key resistance. Break of 1.4177 support will be an important signal that EUR/USD has already topped out and break of 1.3747 support will be the confirmation. In such case, deeper decline should be seen that sends EUR/USD through 1.2329 low eventually.