Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
“[Moody’s] ‘positive’ scenario carries very negative rating implications [for EU countries] in the interim period“
– Moody’s Investors Service
Moody’s Investors Service said on Monday that deteriorating debt crisis in the euro zone threatens all European government credit ratings and certain countries may soon lose access to market funding.
USD
“Businesses are very cautious so they’re not hiring and they’re not distributing their profits to consumers“
– Michelle Meyer, a senior U.S. economist at Bank of America Corp.
Sales of new U.S. houses rose 1.3 per cent to an annual rate of 307 thousand in October from 303 thousand in September, while prices decreased 0.5 per cent, according to the data published by the Census Bureau on Monday.
GBP
“November’s survey suggests that the pressures on consumers’ finances are taking their toll on spending on the high street“
– Markus Wallner, an equity strategist at Commerzbank AG
Retail sales in the U.K. declined in November for a sixth consecutive month to the lowest reading since March 2009, said the Confederation of British Industry on Monday.
CHF
“The market once again draws hope that politicians finally convert words into action“
– Itochu Corp. (based on Bloomberg)
USD/JPY accelerates its advancement and is moving to 79.46.
JPY
“The yen’s strength is taking a pause, boosting exporter stocks and fueling confidence”
– Naoki Fujiwara, a fund manager at Shinkin Asset Management Co.
Japanese stocks rose on Monday after strong Black Friday sales in the U.S. The Nikkei 225 edged higher 1.56%, or 127.48 points, to 8,287.49, while the broader Topix rose 1.29%, or 9.10 points, to 715.70.
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
“A breakup of the euro zone can be avoided, but bold measures are needed soon”
– Moody’s Investors Service
The current rally of EUR/USD is only temporary and is expected to fade once resistances at 1.3418 and 1.3457 are encountered.
EUR/JPY
“For euro zone, it’s time to say goodbye”
– Irwin Kellner (based on Marketwatch)
Rallies are anticipated to be capped by tough resistances located at 104.75 and 105.00.
GBP/USD
“With household consumption falling, government spending shrinking and export growth slowing, the [U. K.] economy is weakening”
– OECD (based on WSJ)
GBP/USD has confronted a strong downtrend at 1.5535 and is likely to bounce off it toward lower levels.
USD/JPY
“[Japanese] exports will fall off a cliff”
– Itochu Corp. (based on Bloomberg)
USD/JPY accelerates its advancement and is moving to 79.46.
USD/CHF
“Declining confidence that timely fiscal measures necessary to place U.S. public finances on a sustainable path will be forthcoming“ – Fitch’s (based on Bloomberg)
Even though USD/CHF is slowing down while approaching a key resistance area at 0.9341/99, the latter levels should eventually give up.
Expert Commentary
“The debt sovereign crisis is a community problem which can only be solved by all members moving from preconceived conditions.”
Dukascopy has interviewed Brian Lucey, Professor of Finance at the prestigious School of Business in Trinity College Dublin, to discover how Ireland is doing in light of the debt crisis in Europe. >>
“The level of private debt is too high to be isolated from what is happening in the debt markets around the world.”
As the Eurozone countries are still struggling with the debt crisis, Dukascopy is persisting to interview the experts in finance to learn information from the inside. Today we talked to José García-Montalvo, Professor of Economics at the University Pompeu Fabra, Spain, who shared his opinion on the recent news from Spain
What To Read Today
Europe
Euro Chiefs to Meet As Obama Steps Up Pressure
President Barack Obama renewed pressure on European leaders to prevent a dismantling of the single currency before euro-area finance ministers meet today to seek a .resolution to the two-year-old crisis.
USA
Fitch warns of U.S. downgrade if no budget deal in 2013
Fitch Ratings gave the United States until 2013 to come up with a “credible plan” to tackle its ballooning budget deficit or risk a downgrade of .the country’s coveted AAA rating.
Asia & PacificEurope
Unemployment up, household spending falls in Japan
Japan’s jobless rate climbed for the first time in three months in October whil e household spending and incomes fell, adding to evidence that the country’s post-disaster rebound is waning.