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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview

Posted on January 13, 2012

Dukascopy Bank SA

Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR

ECB President Mario Draghi announced his plan for curtailing European debt turmoil starts to work as large amount capital injection in region’s financial system in December begin to oil credit markets amid falling Spanish and Italian borrowing costs. The Euro slightly appreciated after Draghi’s announcement.

USD

Barack Obama formally notified the Congress that US government needs to borrow another $1.2 trillion to meet existing commitments. Congress should vote during the next 15 days on the approval of the proposal that may raise debt ceiling to about $16.4 trillion. The government was near default in 2011 exceeding its debt ceiling. The proposal is expected to increase battles between Obama and Republicans.

GBP

UK home prices climbed in December, reaching 8-month high, as the buyers hurried to complete their deals before the end of 2011 amid surging demand from investors, said Acadametrics Ltd.  in its report The average value of home in Wales and England added 0.2% to $338 000 compared to November.

CHF

The official SNB exchange rate for EUR/CHF is 1.2106 today; yield on 10-year Swiss Confederation bonds decreased to 0.77%. 3-month LIBOR CHF stands at 0.06%, and is within the target range of 0.00-0.25%. Swiss SMI stock index has lost 0.33 since the opening bell, and is currently fluctuating around 5999 points.

JPY

Japan’s consumer sentiment rose in December, reflecting the first improvement in the last three quarters. The consumer sentiment diffusion index added 4.9 points to minus 57.5 last month from minus 62.4 in the preceding quarter. The indicator subtracts the number of people who believe the economic situation deteriorated over the last year from the number of individuals who say the situation improved.

Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/USD

Daily maximum: 1.2878
Daily minimum: 1.2624
The pair erased earlier gains today after S&P announced the EU members’ ratings downgrade, including France and Austria and pierced the daily forecast mean at 1.2794. Daily Resistance: 1.2873; 1.2932; 1.3019. Daily Support: 1.2727; 1.2640; 1.2581. Daily Bias: Neutral.

EUR/JPY

Daily maximum: 98.80
Daily minimum: 97.20
EUR/JPY breached the market participants’ daily consensus at 98.23 on the S&P announcement of the EU member ratings cut. Daily Resistance: 98.73; 99.10; 99.65. Daily Support: 97.81; 97.26; 96.89. Daily Bias: Neutral.

GBP/USD

Daily maximum: 1.5409
Daily minimum: 1.5234
The British added to losses versus the greenback today on disappointing monthly PPI Input (-0.6% act./0.0% est.) and breached the 1.5327 daily target. Daily Resistance: 1.5372; 1.5414; 1.5460. Daily Support: 1.5284; 1.5238; 1.5196. Daily Bias: Strongly bearish.

USD/JPY

Daily maximum: 77.00
Daily minimum: 76.66
USD/JPY declined today and pierced the daily forecast mean (76.79) as the US trade balance unexpectedly widened (-47.8B act./-44.8B est.). Daily Resistance: 76.93; 77.11; 77.24. Daily Support: 76.62; 76.49; 76.31. Daily Bias: Strongly bearish.

USD/CHF

Daily maximum: 0.9574
Daily minimum: 0.9407
The daily forecast mean has been pierced (0.9460) as weak US trade balance figure (-47.8B act/-44.8 est.) disappointed investors. Daily Resistance: 0.9523; 0.9602; 0.9698. Daily Support: 0.9388; 0.9332; 0.9253. Daily Bias: Neutral.

Press Review
Europe

Retailers, weak U.S. data weigh on Europe markets
Most European stock markets fell Thursday, as the retail sector came under heavy selling pressure after Tesco PLC announced disappointing holiday trading sales, while well-received debt sales in Spain and Italy boosted banking shares.

USA

Retail Sales Post Gain of 0.1% as Holiday Buying Fades
America’s retailers enjoyed a record 2011 and their first $400 billion sales months ever. But the final month of the year was a dud.

Asia & Pacific

Japanese Prime Minister Noda reshuffles cabinet posts
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has reshuffled his cabinet, replacing five members including two ministers responsible for a series of gaffes.

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