“The cost of postponing a solution [debt swap] is extremely high for Europe, but especially for the future of the euro”
– Giovanni Bossi, chief executive officer of Banca Ifis SpA
Talks on Greek debt swap resumed on Thursday as European finance ministers pressure private bondholders to take bigger losses on their Greek holdings.
“Improving economic momentum and diminished angst surrounding the financial crisis has encouraged businesses to take on more risk”
– Richard DeKaser, deputy chief economist at Parthenon Group Inc.
The number of Americans claiming for unemployment benefits rose to 377 thousand in the week ended January 21 from 356 thousand the week before, said the Department of Labor on Thursday.
“Given the key role of consumer spending, the CBI survey heightens concern that the economy is set for further contraction in the first quarter of 2012”
– Chris Williamson, the chief economist at Markit
U.K. retail sales fell in January, said the Confederation of British Industry on Thursday. The index measuring sales declined to -22 from 9 in December. Above 0 indicates higher sales volume, below indicates lower.
“Further delays in [Greece’s] negotiations [with private bondholders] would lead to renewed nervousness on the financial markets”
– Anja Hochberg, head of investment strategy at Credit Suisse Group AG
Swiss stocks gained on Th ursday as the Federal Reserve hinted it plans to keep interest rates at record lows through 2014.
“The job cuts announced [by the NEC Corporation] today are bigger than expected”
– Yuichi Ishida, an analyst at Mizuho Investors Securities Co.
NEC Corporation announced on Thursday it plans to cut 10,000 jobs, almost one-tenth of its workforce, in an attempt to decrease costs as weak global growth and fierce competition reduce demand for its computers and mobile phones.
“There’s been a big selling of U.S. dollar positions since the Fed and, just by sheer weighting of money, the euro has benefited more than the pound”
– Credit Agricole (based on Reuters)
Bullish impetus is weakening ahead of tough resistance area at 1.3200/50. Rally may extend up to 1.3245/50, although further advancement is highly unlikely. Thus the attention is on the support lines at 1.3025 and at 1.2930.
“The BOJ will need to keep its ultraeasy stance in the meantime. If risks from the euro-zone debt crisis heighten, it could move for an additional easing in the near term”
– Norinchukin Research Institute (based on CNBC)
Resistance at 102.55/60 should be able to withstand attempt of EUR/JPY to step over it. Nonetheless, the currency pair has to overcome this resistance to confirm long-term bullish trend. Supports at 100.75 and 100.55 should cover dips.
“Sterling has strongly rejected any move below $1.54 on a couple of occasions and we might see it continue to go a little higher, but above $1.58 it will struggle”
– FXPro (based on Reuters)
The Cable is expected to soar up to 1.5770/80, after it breaks though 1.5680 resistance. The initial support may be found at 1.5618, while subsequent lines are located at 1.5579 and 1.5544.
“The dollar will rise moderately, and I expect it will hit JPY80 by March”
– Royal Bank of Scotland (based on WSJ)
As long as a key support at 76.70/20 is not violated, the outlook will stay bullish for USD/JPY. The currency couple did not manage to breach resistance at 78.25/35 (200 ma) and is thus likely to step lower.
“Swiss central bank’s decision to impose a franc ceiling of 1.20 versus the euro was the most important step to help bolster the economy”
– Johann Schneider-Ammann, Swiss EM (based on Bloomberg)
Being that USD/CHF has violated support at 0.9250, the price is expected to fall down to 0.9080/65. The latter level should provide sufficient support and halt bearish movement. In the long-term USD/CHF should aim for 0.9775.
Greece Firewall Must be Built: Swedish Finance Minister
The EU should build up more resources for a firewall around Greek debt, Sweden’s Finance Minister Anders Borg told CNBC at Davos Thursday.
First-Time Jobless Claims in U.S. Increase, Displaying Seasonal Volatility
Claims for U.S. jobless benefits rose last week, displaying the usual volatility around holidays that has masked an improvement in the labor market.
Japan retail sales rebound in December
Japanese retail sales rose in December, snapping back from November losses, but large retailers reported a fifth month of lower revenue.