Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview – Aug 26 09

 Previous session overview

The dollar gained ground against the euro and the British pound Wednesday, bid higher after Commerce Department data showed that orders for new U.S.-made durable goods jumped more than expected in July.

For many months, the U.S. currency has largely traded in the opposite direction of equities as traders gauge investors’ willingness to take on risk. It has lately returned to a more traditional correlation with economic news, with positive data considered positive for the currency.

Strategists noted that the dollar, which has typically weakened in response to favorable economic data and any corresponding rise in investors’ appetite for equities and risky assets, didn’t succumb to pressure following Tuesday’s stronger-than-expected jump in U.S. consumer confidence.

The euro had a similar reaction against the dollar, also a funding currency. And along with a drop in crude oil prices, the euro fell to an intraday low of USD1.4254.

The U.K. pound also tumbled, extending an overnight sell-off as global stocks came off highs, to a six-week low of USD1.6233.

The traditionally higher-yielding currencies, particularly the euro, have turned highly susceptible to profit-taking, along with other riskier assets, as market confidence turns cautious after weeks of building risk appetite. This is helping the safe-haven dollar.

Market expectation

EURUSD mints fresh lows for the session sub USD1.4250 as cable offers a directional signal even as euro-sterling retains a bid tone above stg0.8800. Euro skidding to USD1.4235 as earlier mentioned stops sub USD1.4250 get taken to the woodshed but some demand interest expected in the USD1.4200/20 zone, with further stops mentioned below there.

Pound hits USD1.6200, passing through the mentioned short term swing target at USD1.6210 (23.6% USD1.3500/1.7045). Below the figure and rate can sink toward USD1.6180/75. Euro-sterling made a show above stg0.8800, touched stg0.88035. Next resistance seen at stg0.8820 though offers said to begin from around stg0.8810.

U.S. data still eyed Wednesday includes July new home sales at (1400 GMT)