Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview – Sept 09 09

Previous session overview

The euro has faded from its earlier succession of intraday highs, after U.S. stocks stumbled at the outset of trading to quell any resurgence of risk appetite. EURUSD now trade at USD1.4561 from USD1.4489 late Tue, and from earlier intraday high at USD1.4585.

This marks the highest level since Dec. 18 for the single European currency, extending Tuesday’s upward break out of its erratic summer range against the dollar.

Tuesday’s broad-based global move against the dollar came as investors returned from summer holidays in a gung-ho mood – boosted by news of a global economic recovery and willing to put their money in higher-yielding more risky assets at the expense of safe havens, such as the dollar.

Now, the pressing issue for the market is whether the dollar’s fall will mark the inception of a more sustained downtrend in which negatives like the huge U.S. fiscal deficit weigh more persistently on the dollar, or whether the summer’s choppy pattern of almost daily reverses in direction still holds sway.

So far Wednesday, the evidence is inconclusive. The dollar appears to be consolidating after Tuesday’s dip, amid a temporary lull in the domestic data flow and mixed signals from global equity markets.

Market expectation

USDJPY ebbed to a fresh low for the session around JPY92.10 as earlier semi-official demand around JPY92.22 was filled amid a broad dollar decline. Pair remains above the Tuesday low at JPY92.04 with demand interest ahead of JPY92.00 still intact but plenty of focus on JPY91.70 area of July lows. Bids mentioned today at JPY91.85, down to JPY91.70, but recall talk yesterday that added stops in place at various levels under JPY92.00, likely that interest may not have changed much overnight. Dollar last at JPY92.15.

EURUSD continues its trek toward a USD1.4600 barrier strike with backdrop of modestly improved US stock futures encouraging risk-appetites. Beyond barrier and supply at the figure, USD1.4622 suggested as a technical objective, 61.8% of USD1.6038/1.2330 move. Euro high thus far USD1.4585, trades currently at USD1.4575.

EURGBP breaks above stg0.8800 resistance as cable struggles to keep pace with euro-dollar’s extended rally (resistance at USD1.6558), with rate moving on to stg0.88095. Next band of reported offers/resistance seen placed at stg0.8820. Above here and reported key level at stg0.8840 moves into view.

Source: Dukascopy