Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8618; (P) 0.8666; (R1) 0.8723;
AUD/USD weakens further today but it’s still holding above 0.8589 support. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Note that break of 0.8589 will confirms hat a short term top is at least in place, with bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. In such case deeper decline should be seen towards 0.8239 support next. On the upside, another rise cannot be ruled out yet, AUD/USD should continue to lose upside momentum ahead of 61.8% projection of 0.6284 to 0.8262 from 0.7702 at 0.8924 and at least bring some lengthier consolidation.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, the strength of the rise from 0.6008 argues that AUD/USD is developing into another up trend. In other words, long term correction from 0.9849 has possibly completed at 0.6008 already, after being support slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). The current rally from 0.6008 might extend further to retest 0.9849 high next. On the downside, below 0.8239 support will have the medium term rising trend line firmly broken and thus argue that a medium term top is formed. Some deep pull back and lengthy consolidation might then be seen, with prospect of fall to 0.7267/7702 support zone. But a break of 0.7267 resistance turned support is needed to indicate that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Otherwise, we’ll continue to favor the longer term bullish case even in case of deep correction.